Can public health supersede the economy? Why should we be concerned with financial priorities when, at the time of the writing of this article, there were 432,132 confirmed cases in the U.S. and 1,484,811 global ones? With so much suffering, why are we talking about that damnedest economy? Because about 10 million Americans have filed for unemployment in the last two weeks and that number will grow exponentially as long as statewide lockdowns are in effect. Can you imagine a scenario in which 3 million a week file for unemployment between now and the end of April? That’s on a conservative side! Don’t you want to stop this horror show? How much longer before our beloved America becomes a shell of itself?
Welcome back to the JMS blog! Dear Readers, thank you very much for your continued support! As a consulting firm that advises teams how to manage crises of all sorts with efficiency and expediency, the JMS team is all too familiar with the panic you all feel. Thankfully, this blog can meet your concerns because JMS is in the business of designing recovery plans as robust as possible that avoid organizational and fiscal paralysis. Consequently, the JMS team is starting its special edition Protecting The American Psyche Wellness series to encourage us all as we fight like hell to stay alive and beat this coronavirus monstrosity.
Dear Readers, this is the grimmest economic prospect our nation has faced since the Great Depression. President Trump cannot let our economy go bankrupt! We desperately need a viable fiscal strategy now (and a monetary one, which this blog can discuss at a later date)! Before going further, Dear Readers, this blog must take the time to establish a few simple truths.
Public health is critical. Saving American lives must take priority.
However, the goal of public health is to prevent the spread of any given disease. Meaning, public health policies we hear today would have been most effective had we started to apply them in January! Can you imagine, Dear Readers, how much flatter the curve that Deborah Birx discusses during the daily White House coronavirus task force briefings could have been by now?!! That’s when public policy is the most potent outbreak combating arm of the government.
When the country is already in the throes of a pandemic, however, public health priorities alone are no longer adequate to keep the population safe.
Therefore, they must work in tandem with a dynamic fiscal policy to protect the economy and recapture its potency. In this earlier publication, this blog explained the value of exploring how to restart the economy ASAP despite still observing the rules of social distancing. But one of you, Dear Readers, asked whether it was inconsiderate to discuss making money while people are dying. To that question, this blog is shouting a resounding NOOOOOO!
Remember, we are fighting a war on two fronts with different timelines.
On the one hand, we have public health policies that focus on extending the quality of life for the entire nation. As the days go by, public health care professionals can gather data and input them in models to tweak policies. It’s a backward-looking model that rests upon informed choices based on observed data. As you hear Birx tell us over and over and over again, we can flatten the curve if we stay at home, wash our hands for 20 seconds, and apply the rules of social distancing when running essential errands. Why? They have observed that these specific behavioral changes can effectively slow down the spread of the pandemic.
On the other hand, we have fiscal policies that aim to sway the nation’s economy via the use of revenue collection (that is our taxes) and expenditure (that is spending such as the big $2 trillion stimulus relief package at the end of March). For the fiscal policy to be effective, however, it needs both taxes and spending. But, if more and more Americans are losing jobs, government spending keeps going up while tax collection eventually dries up since fewer and fewer taxpayers are working. Consequently, the longer the Trump administration prolongs the national lockdown, the bleaker the economic standing of our great nation will become. Economics, therefore, differs from public health as it is a much more forward-looking model that attempts to predict behaviors assuming data not observed
Do you see why, Dear Readers, the Trump administration must consider scenarios to restart the economy now? Of course, this blog is not asking that the Trump administration reopens the economy this week. Far from it! All it suggests is that spending time now to devise a plan to restart our economy is time well spent and essential to avoid federal bankruptcy.
For those of us who remember when New York City was at the precipice of bankruptcy in the mid-1970s, those were far from being happy times. It took a lot of sacrifices ranging from massive layoffs to hard-fought concessions from the unions representing city employees as well as outstanding leadership on the part of Governor Hugh Carey to resolve such major municipal insolvency.
However painful that was, it’s nothing in comparison to what is coming at us if the Trump administration does not put an economic strategy in place now. Can you imagine local and state governments filing for bankruptcy one by one and a cash strapped federal government being unable to intervene?!! That’s the real human cost if the Trump administration does not seriously consider reopening our economy sooner rather than later.
There you have it, Dear Readers! Thank you for stopping by our blog today. As always, we want to hear from you! Do you think that we got it all wrong? When would you like things to go back to normal? Have you recently lost your job? Or have you been able to work remotely? Let us know what you think of Trump’s handling of the pandemic so far. Tell us all about it in the comment section below, by email at jms@branding24seven.com, or by mail at:
JMStrategy LLC
21 S. 11th Street, 2nd Floor, Philadelphia, PA, 19107.
We salute the first responders, health professionals, national guard service members, and everyone who has been on the frontline of this crisis. We salute essential personnel who have been working hard to deliver food and medicine for us all. Your courage and dedication are appreciated. Thank you for everything that you are doing.
As always, Dear Readers, please stay safe! Also, please take all the precautions you need to protect your families and keep your spirits up. We shall overcome this! We are all in this together!
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